A cynic might note that emissions increase in line with the number of pledges made to reduce them. The lack of progress around the Global Methane Pledge seems to support this pessimistic view: 159 countries have signed up, promising to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030. However, so far few, if any, are on track to achieve this. Emissions are still rising. Indeed, the UK’s Climate Change Committee notes that the UK’s emissions reduction rate “…will need to more than double to 14.3 MtCO2e/year (4.6%) over the next seven years if the UK is to meet its 2030 target. This will require substantial increases in the rates of reduction in most sectors outside of electricity supply.”
So it is perhaps not surprising that the European Union’s launch of a new Methane Abatement Partnership Roadmap at COP29 was not widely covered even in the most climate-aware national media. If emissions are still rising, will a roadmap get reductions back on track? But that lack of media attention meant an important point was missed: this document was only the latest of a series of developments that are poised to deliver real, positive, boots-on-the-ground climate action.
At the forefront of this wave is the EU’s Methane Regulation, which came into force in August. A world-leading piece of legislation, its effects will be felt far beyond Europe’s border. With a high level of energy exports to the EU, the U.S. has been watching the regulation and its likely impacts with keen interest. The UK, as an energy importer, exporter, and trader, will also be affected, even beyond the energy security implications, for our geopolitical standing. In this context, the United Kingdom has an opportunity to join the charge of countries leading the way to emissions reductions, drawing on its data analytics expertise and tech capabilities. This post continues the conversation from Beyond Hot Air Series 1, where we examined the UK’s unique insights into methane emissions and their implications for future action.
What is the EU Methane Regulation?
From May 2025, importers will have to report, annually, on the emissions of the energy they bring into the Union. This will be more than just a tick-box exercise, given that they will have to provide information on:
- All methane emissions for operated assets
- The type and location of the emissions source
- The methodologies used to quantify emissions
- Ownership and operational control structures for these assets
The aim is to accelerate the reduction in emissions from the fossil fuel sector. To ensure the law is being adhered to and having the desired effect, monitoring, reporting, and verification of emissions sit at its heart, with satellites playing a key role:
“The new rules require the Commission to put in place a monitoring tool on global methane emitters to provide information, based on satellite data, on the magnitude, occurrence, and location of high methane-emitting sources occurring within or outside the EU.”
From 2027, all contracts for imported oil, gas, and coal must match EU methane reporting standards, and from 2030, they will also be evaluated in terms of their “methane intensity”—how much of the gas is released during its production. There are significant details in the new regulation still to be worked out: reports must be verified (by whom?) and passed to a ‘competent authority’ (how will this be designated?). What happens to companies that don’t comply isn’t clear yet either. But the direction of travel is unmistakable. Action is the priority.
Is this really a big deal for countries outside of the European Union?
In a word, yes.
Although the EU produced more electricity from wind power than gas in 2023, the majority of fuel used within the bloc originates outside of Europe (62% in 2023). The EU is one of the biggest importers of liquid natural gas, with 47% of its supply coming from the U.S. (which has largely replaced Russian supply). Inflows of LNG are expected to grow, with new terminals being planned in Canada, Qatar, and Africa.
These energy imports have been excluded from Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, their greenhouse gas footprint unaccounted for—until now. In 2023, the UK exported roughly £16.2bn worth of fuels to EU countries, with our pipeline gas providing around 10% of Europe’s total supply. Not huge figures when compared to the Union’s 4th quarter 2023 fuel import bill of €111.3bn, but not insignificant either, especially to those UK firms involved in the trade. To keep this trade, we will have to comply with the new regulations. This will involve costs, of course, but it will also bring benefits.
The fuel production business is believed to be responsible for around 8% of UK methane emissions (though, as millions of global GHGSat observations have established, emissions are habitually undercounted, so this figure could well increase as we get better data). The need to comply with the new EU rules will encourage energy suppliers to better monitor and reduce this pollution. We also ship in a great deal of energy, being in the top 10 of LNG importers. If the countries supplying us are required to clean up their act—because they also supply the EU—it would represent a double win for our environment.
How Can the United Kingdom Play a Bigger Role in the Global Emissions Stage?
Britain took an early lead on methane emissions, helping to steward the Global Methane Pledge into being at COP26 in Glasgow. With the new regulations (and roadmap), the baton may currently have passed to the EU, but that does not mean that the UK no longer has a role to play.
The first channel is through bolstering the newly released Methane Abatement Partnership Roadmap, which calls for greater cooperation between energy exporters and importers to minimise emissions from oil and natural gas. It emphasises the need for better emissions monitoring (including by satellite) and greater transparency on emissions throughout the energy supply chain. It also highlights the need to help operators abate emissions from existing fossil fuel assets and provide funding for this. As a named supporter of the Roadmap, Britain is obliged to do its part.
More broadly, the UK has set ambitious targets for emissions reduction: the Prime Minister has committed to cutting UK emissions by 81% by 2035 (previously 68% by 2030). As the world’s sixth largest economy, worth £12 trillion in 2023, this commitment can drive real impact.
If we can reduce emissions while maintaining our GDP, it will be noticed. For one thing, the symbolism would be no trivial matter. Britain had a major role in greenhouse gas emissions with the advent of the first (coal-powered) industrial revolution. However, with the closure of the Ratcliffe on Sour power station in September 2024, we also became the first major economy to move on from coal. Today, our challenge is to show that productivity can grow without pollution. Here, granular emissions data will be key to tracking progress towards stated goals, coupled with economic data to demonstrate that growth and lower greenhouse gas emissions are not mutually exclusive.
The UK’s expertise in building data-driven policy can contribute to the EU’s yet-to-be-finalised rules for methane emissions. The role of monitoring, reporting, and verification is fundamental to the new regulation. Standards for emissions measurements need to be set, something the UK could be at the forefront of given our expertise in using data to inform policy. As a September 2023 government paper stated,
“[The UK is] a global leader at opening up public datasets to drive public service transformation, business growth, and democratic engagement… Data analytics is a fast-moving area and we are committed to keeping the UK at the leading edge of new developments…”
The UK’s track record in earth observation and space-based data can also come to the fore. The UK has been at the forefront of leveraging earth observation data for public good, including to qualify rural payments claims by the Rural Payments Agency, weather forecasting by the Met Office, hydrographic mapping and charting by the UK Hydrographic Office, and high-resolution emissions data from GHGSat. In collaboration with other government satellites monitoring greenhouse gas emissions, GHGSat has provided emissions intelligence that traces greenhouse gases to the facility-level to individual government departments and the Ordnance Survey through programs like the Satellite Applications Catapult—a model that can be scaled and replicated in other UK government departments and even countries in the EU—to ensure that climate policy is powered by accurate data.
The product regulation and metrology bill now before Parliament, which will harmonize UK and EU environmental regulations, could be a precursor to closer alignment on trade and climate issues. And with the global trading environment becoming chillier, the EU might welcome active third-party support for its ground-breaking new policy. Through these levers, the UK can move from a supporting actor to a leading role.
As ever, we would love to know what you think. Reach out to [email protected].
